Sunday, October 21, 2012

The Big Poll Scandal

Conspiracy theory is fun, but what happens when there's a conspiracy of coincidence?

I'll keep this real short, because the focus for Democrats during this final push has to be a positive message of support for President Obama and your State Representatives. Provide examples of their leadership and the improving economy.

How did this poll "conspiracy" start? It began with the President taking the obvious leads we expected due to Romney's miserable favorability and his inability to appeal to ANY voter block other than "White male with some College". In fact, the running narrative was (and should still be) he simply can't win with such low numbers among people of color and white women. So what happened? It wasn't the first debate.

Sensing a demoralizing effect from the polls, a "movement" sprang up from the depths of the GOP. The "UnSkewed Poll" was unveiled. While I haven't bothered to investigate, it's origins can certainly be traced back to Rove or some element of the Rovian network. The unskewed poll narrative satisfied two criteria. It stopped the bleeding in "enthusiasm" and it forced the Democrats to vehemently defend the polls while mocking the "unhinged right". Voila! From this point forward, the polls are "Gospel". If you challenge the polls, you're labeled unhinged by your own words or the words of someone else. Citing "sample" numbers? The ultimate in conspiracy theory or denial of reality.

It's not exactly a conspiracy, it's a strategy. It's been an effective strategy since the pollsters have taken the sampling criticism to the bank. It's a regular free-for-all at this point when it comes to weighting, sampling and whether cell phones are included at all. Building a narrative or following a narrative is up to the individual to decide, and that individual is of course, you.

Lastly, let's keep in mind that polls are generated by "FOR PROFIT" organizations or at the very least, a revenue stream. Conspiracy is common practice in business and politics, it isn't always an "evil enterprise". We all conspire with friends at some time or another to achieve common goals. It's just the stakes are higher in some cases. Enjoy the day!

Obama/Biden 2012! Vote Dem!

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